Critical decisions await: Recap of Dubai COP28

We know food and farming matters for the nature outcomes we need. Globally, it uses 38% of land¹, extracts 70% of freshwater and drives 80% of deforestation. Food production is also responsible for a third of global emissions, whilst farming practices and crop success is also impacted by climate change.

Whilst there was no question that the number one priority at COP28 was to secure a phase out of fossil fuel and to deliver a fair future for all through renewable energy production and decarbonisation, we know that climate change cannot be tackled without changing how we use land for food and other needs.

Reducing emissions so that we don’t reach more than 1.5 degrees temperature rise matters for society and nature – as well as food production – so did the important discussions tackle fossil fuels, and in turn the much-needed transformations in land use?

In short, whilst talks were extended and an agreement was reached around fossil fuels, the final text is still too weak, referring to fossil fuel transition rather than phase out, with little progress made on finance to help developing countries move away from fossil fuels and for climate adaptation.

And on food? Well, there was lots of talk, some announcements and many reports… but then essentially the food can was kicked down the road to future talks and summits.

The good news is that food and farming did feature in and around the summit:

One valuable outcome was the Declaration signed by 159 countries, including the UK, launched near the beginning of this climate summit, putting food was on the agenda. This is hugely useful and sends a powerful signal. But it lacked strong targets and clear steps. Nor was it an official UN COP outcome. 

This pithily titled Dubai Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action talks about:

• adopting farming and food resilience and adaptation measures that will deliver sustainable food security whilst conserving, protecting and restoring nature

• tackling inequality and ensuring food for vulnerable communities and supporting workers

• protecting water systems, biodiversity and reducing the harmful effects on the food system (from greenhouse gases to water, soil and ecosystem harms)

• integrating food into the climate change commitments and plans by 2025.

There were also numerous reports launched including a much heralded and hugely detailed UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) roadmap, which is partially useful as it suggested targets for cutting food related impacts by 25% and halving methane emissions by 2045. It refers to the need for healthy and environmentally better diets within the 10 areas for action (see FAO Roadmap for the 10 areas). 

BUT (and it’s a big but) the FAO focus heavily on technofixes, such as increasing productivity for crops and livestock (which rings alarm bells in terms of inputs and soils), and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) (with potentially significant impacts on nature among other issues) and does not yet get us to net zero. Nor does it adequately lay out how adaptation will be achieved and how it can be through nature-based solutions on land. Also we’ve known many of these solutions for decades and it's not, as with most outcomes here, a legally binding commitment.  

Next steps
 

So, what has actually been agreed by COP28 countries in terms of measuring food system impact and in terms of commitment to action? 

Not nearly enough sadly. Key achievements amounted to the following:

• The first ever Global Stocktake – a critical COP outcome – did have the word agriculture in a single passing mention and food systems were mentioned in a long paragraph encouraging multisectoral solutions. It usefully acknowledges, "the fundamental priority of safeguarding food security and ending hunger, and the particular vulnerabilities of food production systems to the adverse impacts of climate change." But it does not cover mitigation, methane, diets and so on. 
   

• In the agreed Global goal on adaptation, it usefully states, "implementation of integrated, multi-sectoral solutions, such as land use management, sustainable agriculture, resilient food systems," and for "climate-resilient food and agricultural production and supply and distribution of food, as well as increasing sustainable and regenerative production and equitable access to adequate food and nutrition for all." But it does not refer to food systems directly in the mitigation section. 
   

• Sadly, there was a failure to agree a text from the Joint Work on Implementation on Agriculture and Food Security (SSJW) – a key Climate process – which concluded with no agreements of substance, only to continue discussions in June 2024.  
   

• The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from all nations include text on restoring forests and have a good emphasis on food systems for adaptation – but the role of food systems in greenhouse gas emissions, such as methane, is not well addressed.  
   

• And official finance is missing for delivery. Though much private finance was promised especially for technical and productivity issues.  

Much on food has been kicked into 2024 and 2025 discussions and meetings. Negotiations on how to implement food and farming commitments made in Egypt at COP27 will only resume in COP29, which is to be held in Azerbaijan in 2024, and COP30 in Brazil in 2025. Carbon Brief has a detailed summary of the outcomes. 

A missed opportunity 
 

Food systems and land use as a whole— both production, supply chains and consumption— must be addressed and fast - this is essential for achieving mitigation and adaptation goals. And in ways that protect and restore nature. 

We do know that 2024 will be a crucial year now for agreeing action on food, agriculture and land – with key talks mid-year. We will need to up the pressure to get clear, urgent actions committed to globally.  

And we do know that the UK does not yet have a credible plan for tackling food and farming related climate harms and adaptation, with significant gaps as noted by its own Climate Change Committee. So, the UK has much to sort out at home to as well as helping to drive clear action fast via the UN process.

We will be keeping the pressure on so do keep an eye on our climate work and actions.  

References:

1. Our World in Data