Positive words were uttered and pledges made at COP26, yet only time would tell whether the discussions had truly moved us on – with global carbon emissions still on the rise. Sadly, in the 12 months since COP26, the global and national mood has flipped from cautious optimism to fear and division. So here we ask: can there be any hope for these latest negotiations?

The backdrop to COP27 is sadly of war, further environmental destruction, nuclear risk, and a cost of living crisis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and increasing hostility between many of the biggest emitters, including the US and China, hangs over the negotiating parties. The Bolsonaro v Lula election in Brazil will be decided just before the start of the conference. Under Bolsonaro’s deregulatory agenda, burning in the Amazon has intensified to unprecedented levels with an estimated doubling of annual emissions. Scientific studies like this one suggest that the region is approaching an irreversible tipping point. A chain reaction effect will occur at the point of no return, leading to the loss of the rainforest and a massive increase in carbon to the atmosphere, triggering further extreme warming globally.

At the same time, the organisation of the COP27 (or the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference – with global parties meeting for the 27^th occasion to discuss climate issues) has come under deep criticism from environmental groups.  Frustrated charities who secured accommodation early on have seen bookings cancelled and prices hiked, making it impossible to attend. Confusion over visas and accreditation has persisted for months. Sponsorship by a major plastic producer, Coca Cola, has only added to concerns that the COP27 presidency are not acting in the best interest of the conference.

I wrote a blog shortly after COP26 pointing out that the success or otherwise of the conference would be dictated by the action that followed those talks.  And the action has not been good.  Only 23 out of nearly 200 countries submitted updated nationally determined contributions to the UN by the deadline of 26^th September. These plans are a fundamental part of understanding whether a commitment to limiting warming to ‘1.5˚C is still alive’; i.e. whether the collective commitments of governments (never mind actual implementation) add up to enough emissions cuts to keep the global temperature increase below the Paris Agreement level. The UK did manage to submit an updated NDC on time, but total global commitments are still nowhere near the 1.5˚C  goal, and to keep within it would require emissions to drop off a cliff before 2030. 

This year has seen another wave of devastating impacts and loss of life linked to climate change. The worst ever flooding in Pakistan. The highest ever temperatures recorded in the UK. One of the worst hurricanes ever recorded in US history. These impacts will get worse, and worse, until the world hits net zero emissions. Yet in 2021, carbon dioxide emissions were the highest in recorded history. And there is no sign of them starting to drop yet.

At home in the UK, we appear to have a new government which is not taking the threat from climate change to human existence and nature seriously.

We have published multiple blogs and news stories on this over the past month, which share our concerns about the current #AttackOnNature. From fracking to once again be permitted to laws that protect wildlife put under threat and plans to reward farmers for managing land in climate and nature friendly ways at risk of being watered down – there isn’t much to suggest that UK Government recognises the critical role of the natural environment to a thriving, future-proof economy.

So, is there any hope? Well yes, I still believe there is.

COP27 will be attended by thousands of committed people working tirelessly to try tip the world into a downward emissions trajectory.  Adaptation and finance will be high on the agenda, both of which need a drastic upscaling and previous unkept promises fulfilled. COPs can be unpredictable, and progress could happen when least expected.

At home, The Wildlife Trusts and countless other NGOs and organisations will keep defending nature. In the past two months we have seen legal protection given to beavers for the first time, and the very long-awaited ban on peat in sales of home compost announced from 2024.  These may seem small wins on the global scale, but they have been hard fought for decades and both will help immensely with our climate change response in the UK.

Like last year, we’ll be bringing you regular video updates both on the negotiations and the implications for climate and nature, as well as some positive good news stories from across The Wildlife Trusts.  You can catch up on these through our Youtube channel and social media throughout the conference period, 7^th – 18^th November.  We’ll also be hosting a very special WildLIVE event; more details coming soon.

If you want to help, here are three things you can do:

• Please contact your MP; we have a handy guide here
• Take action at home to save money and help climate and nature; there are eight top actions here
• Work with us. We work alongside farmers, businesses, and communities across the UK to tackle the climate and nature crisis together.

We can all do something by letting nature help.